Why you cant time the property market
Posted on 26th January 2023 at 20:48
Many people think they can hold off until the ‘perfect’ time to buy a property. Waiting until interest rates and house prices drop. It’s impossible to identify the top or bottom of the market or when rates have peaked until you look back over data. The data used to track the performance of the housing mortgage or interest rates is captured every quarter, so the data you are using to track the market can be up to 3 months out of date.
Waiting for the perfect time is a terrible strategy. You don’t know when things will improve or get worse. So how long could you be waiting? 12 months, 24 months? 5 years? Think how many perfect properties you would have missed out on that were exactly what you wanted. But you didn’t see them because stopped looking.
Your own home is not an asset. Repeat with me, your own home is not an asset…
If your property goes up in value by say £50,000, the only way you can realise that increase and enjoy that increase is to sell your property and have that £50,000 in your bank to spend. But then you don’t have a home anymore. Then the properties you would now like to buy have also gone by £50,000 so you are no better off. You cannot spend the equity in your home unless you downsize, sell, and go into rented or go into long term care in which that money will then be spent on your care!
There is no perfect time to buy a property. Property prices aren’t too high or too low, they are just the prices. The set price of a property is the price that somebody is willing to pay for that property. So, if somebody pays that price, then that is what that property is worth. Interest rates aren’t high or low, they are just the rates available at that time. Rates are usually a reflection of the current economic climate, not a driver of the economy.
We can only work with the property prices we have available, and the mortgage products offered by lenders. So, if you are happy to live in that particular property and call it home. You are happy to pay that purchase price. The monthly payments are comfortable for you and if rates increased you could still afford those payments. Nothing should stop you buying that property!
If you are looking to buy your own property to live in there is no good or bad time to buy. People of the
UK have the ideology that their home is an asset, and see that when it goes up in value, they have made
money. This is untrue. If your pres in value so does every other property in that area. So if
you sell your property to move to another, that new property will have also have gone up value so you
haven’t made a gain in reality. The only way to realise a gain is to sell your property without buying
another. But then where do you live now you’ve sold your property?
When are you looking to buy your own home, the only considerations should be: Would you be happy to
live there? Are you happy to pay that purchase price? Are the monthly outgoings for this property
comfortable? That is it. Don’t view your own property as an investment or asset. Its your home and
should be seen as just that.
Buying an investment
If you are buying a property as an asset you want to buy below market value to create equity from day
one. That way you can tap into that equity to invest again or release that as a gain. Market conditions will
control if buying below market value is possible and how much of a discount you can achieve. In a down
market where demand is lower, you can achieve a greater discount than a hot and in demand market.
When demand is higher sellers can demand the top value for a property, with many properties selling for
more than the asking price. So, finding a deal is more difficult in a hot market, not impossible or a time to
avoid buying just more difficult. In a cold (down market) it is easier to achieve a discount on a purchase
where sellers may be more desperate to sell, and you will face less competition for that property.
However, if you are buying property to hold it as an asset for the long term, market conditions are
irrelevant as over time the value of property trends upwards with properties doubling in value on average
every 10 years. So, if your property does lose value in the first couple of years after your purchase, it will
regain that value over time as history has shown. You only lose or gain money on this investment at the
point of sale, so if you can hold off buying until the market heats up. In the time you have owned that
property you will have received rent throughout which will have provided you with an income, you may
have also remortgaged throughout that time releasing equity as you go.
If you are looking to ‘flip’ a property, which is buying a property to renovate and then sell in a short space
of time. Then now may not be the best time to buy a property as when you sell that property you want as
many sellers as possible to drive the demand and drive the asking price to maximise profit.
Tagged as: advice, adviser, advisor, affordability, apartment, bank, bank of england, bank rate, big mortgage, broker, buy to let, buying, cost of living, credit report, decision in principle, deposit, finance, finances, first home, first time buyer, help to buy, home buyer, housing market, low interest rate, market, mortage, mortgage advice, Mortgage in principle
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